My Investment Portfolio

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For this month, I have attended the following AGMs/EGMs/briefings – SingPost, PNE Industries, F&N, Frasers Centrepoint Ltd, Chew’s Group, and UPP. For my top 30 holdings, not much changes although Keppel T&T did not prosper after announcing their full-year result despite an increase in the dividend payout. ComfortDelgro is another stock that is under great pressure due to depreciation in UK pounds and competition in S’pore.

Properties companies in the list did well though. I have participated in the following privileges issues – Sabana Tat and REIT Hong. I’ve also accepted the following voluntary delisting/cash offers this month – Aztech and Vard Holdings. I’ve converted the following unlisted warrants to shares – AA Group. February will be the full-year result reporting season for companies with financial calendar year ending 31 December 2016. I am following the result release from the firms in my portfolio closely.

How successful this strategy is only time will inform. For Westerman, it’s reasonable to say that adding China to his stock portfolio is a stretch out assignment. For a start, he’s only been in Asia for a matter of months so is hardly Asia hands. And he’s keeping his current role as co-head of Asia investment bank alongside Dan Dees. He’s going to truly have a great deal on his dish. In April When JP Morgan appointed Jeff Urwin as its Asia-Pacific CEO, he kept his existing roles of head of global investment banking coverage, capital M&A, and markets.

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Even though he’s based in Hong Kong, that’s barely an indicator of commitment to Asia. The set up with Westerman has a few of the same flavor. Finally, of course, neither Schwartz nor Westerman are Chinese. In this regard, the session of Goldman Sachs Gao Hua’s new CEO is hotly expected. Whoever it is will have their work cut out for them.

After this announcement, certificate of entitlement (COE) prices reduced the next month. Days gone by 3 years has been a challenge to MAS policy manufacturers as Singapore encountered a unique phenomenon called stagflation. In Singapore, consumers are still feeling the higher costs of living pressures and increasingly higher cost in housing prices. The near future ahead is challenging to the government as well regarding the central bank or investment company. Singapore will continue steadily to experience slower growth in 2013 as various policies are already in the spot to reduce the price level in the economy.

Once inflation is more sustainable, growth throughout the market can be at a healthier level. The most recent cooling actions to restrict loans for cars and curbs on the property market will bring down the inflation level in Singapore as both of these categories contribute significantly to the CPI. This can make the Singapore overall economy more lasting and MAS policies more effective in the long run. Like my Facebook web page to receive market notifications and updates of new articles. SG Young Investment seeks to educate readers on finance and investment. Join many other readers on this journey towards financial freedom.

Does lacking the inflation target from below for roughly a decade imply that the FOMC has didn’t apply a symmetric inflation focusing on program? Powell’s mea culpa above suggests yes. But again, I am not so sure. As I above said, the success of inflation targeting program should be measured by how well inflation expectations are anchored around the target.

By this measure, the FOMC has handled, in my mind, a reasonable degree of success (2015-16 appears weak). The following diagram plots the PCE inflation rate (blue) against expected inflation (TIPS breakevens) five years (red) and ten years (green) out. In my own view, the fact that noticed inflation has persistently continued to be below the target does not always imply the absence of a symmetric inflation focus on. Let’s check out the FOMC’s established view on the situation, on January 24 originally made public, 2012 in its Declaration of Longer-Run Monetary and Goals Plan Strategy.

The Committee reaffirms its wisdom that inflation at the speed of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal intake expenses, is most constant within the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate. The Committee would get worried if inflation was running persistently above or below this goal. If one accepts my definition of a symmetric inflation target then, unfortunately, we do not yet have enough data to judge whether the Fed’s inflation target is symmetric. The plan was only formally implemented in 2012. Since that time we’ve only observed a persistent undershoot and the conditions resulting in these persistent downward surprises. Would the FOMC be similarly tolerant of allowing inflation surprise to the upside for quite some time should financial conditions warrant? It appears that we’ll have to wait and find out.

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