The flare-up in hostilities between Lebanon and Israel, obviously, creates an outrageous card on track economic and stock market predictions, but, in my own judgment, it augments the styles that I have already been talking about actually. I think that the US economy will slow over the rest of 2006 to a 3% growth rate. The odds of this are increased consequently of today’s record-high oil prices. The following is a short set of observations about the implications of the center of East hostilities.
I will increase on these factors later, but I wish to get my thoughts in front of everyone at the earliest opportunity. You will see plenty of hands wringing going on, but I don’t think things are near as dire as the news headlines media will portray it anywhere, or the stock market will reveal it. 1. Worldwide economic growth will not be significantly impacted by the fireworks in the Middle East.
2. Higher oil prices will act a lot more just like a “tax,” slowing the overall economy, than increasing inflation problems. 3. The slowing overall economy shall favor larger companies over smaller companies, top quality companies over lower quality companies, and multi-national companies over home companies. 4. If the fighting intensifies, the chances of additional Fed hikes reduce.
5. If hostilities continue, the most attractive industry areas over the next 12 months would likely be Consumer Staples, Energy, Utilities, Healthcare, Financial, and Real Estate Investment Trusts. Basic Industries, Technology, Telecommunications, and Consumer Cyclicals will be vulnerable. Industrials shall be neutral, but Defense and Aerospace within the sector will succeed. 6. Quality bonds and preferred shares will do well.
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Interest rates have likely seen their highs. The outbreak of fighting between Lebanon and Israel could include Syria very quickly, and everybody knows that Iran is behind all of it. Because Iran is the second-largest maker of oil, oil prices will be dicey for the longer term. That is why we are buying more oil stocks today. This situation differs from Iraq. World forces are aligned with the united states against Iran in it ventures in enriching Uranium.
August 29 – Bloomberg (Ian Wishart and Nikos Chrysoloras): “European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker joined up with the bloc’s chief negotiator in lashing out at the U.K. Brexit talks, as the third round of negotiations looked set to create little progress. ‘I’ve read all the position papers produced by Her Majesty’s nothing and government of these is acceptable,’ Juncker said… as discussions between your U.K.